What is the strongest proxy?

What is the strongest proxy?

The strongest proxy?

For me, that is a tough question to answer. I've been asked this question countless times in the past, but for whatever reason, it never really panned out to be an easy one for me. The truth is, it depends on the day, and for whatever reason, we are often asked to go through the day, and come up with some sort of ranking system for a week, month, or season. Well, if you're asking me for the week, then yes, I do think that the average high temperature is the most powerful indicator of a week's worth of storminess (and even more than that). With that being said, it's not the most complete predictor of a storm, because of course we have to consider the wind, pressure, and several other things, but on average, it gets pretty close.

As for the entire year, however, it's not quite as easy to give answer as it seems. When we ask someone what is the strongest proxy, it's not so much what is the strongest proxy, it's really more about which proxy is the most important. To see why, let's first look at a couple different options.

The First Rule of Ranking: If You Have Only One Option, It Must Be the Strongest! Well, if you have only one option, then yes, it has to be the strongest option. And since we are talking about winter storms, I do think it's safe to say that high temperatures are the strongest indicators of storminess. High temperatures are, in fact, so strong that sometimes we use it as the only indicator of storminess at all!

As a quick example, there was the winter of 2002-2003, where we had the highest winter snowfall total ever recorded (by a wide margin). However, the average high temperature during that period of time was so low that even though it was the snowiest winter ever recorded, it was actually the least stormy winter of the 20th century.

So this all leads us to the second rule of ranking: Even though the strongest indicator is the strongest indicator, we need to consider other factors as well.